As President Joe Biden and his campaign team took meetings with the heads of state and officials of NATO in Washington this week, talk among delegates at the Summit was dominated by the US election campaign – the outcome of which is seen as important to the alliance as its future agenda. 

A day before the Summit began, the Republican National Committee made public the new Republican policy platform – the first since 2016. The platform consists of 20 populist policies that pick up where Trump left off in 2020 to “Make America Great Again” and affirms that Trumpism has come to define the Republican Party’s political agenda.

 

Make America Great Again, Again

Support among Republicans for the new 2024 policy platform has not been unanimous, with some in the Party concerned about the Trump campaign’s dominance of the National Platform Committee, which is responsible for writing the document. The committee usually comprises two representatives from each US state and territory, drawn from the pool of convention delegates. However, this time the names of committee representatives were withheld, and its meetings held in private – where they are usually open to the media and/or live-streamed. 

It is clear from the platform that Trumpism has come to define the Republican Party’s political agenda. Its tenor is anti-elitist and conforms with Trump’s now familiar theme of “us against them” wherein he sides with the “ordinary US public” against the entrenched establishment. It comprises 20 populist policies that pick up where Trump left off in 2020 to “Make America Great Again.” 

Here are a few of the priority policy issues: 

  • End inflation and restore manufacturing jobs – a policy aimed at winning over the “Rust Belt” voter carrying the catchy idiom of “making American affordable again”
  •  Deport undocumented immigrants and promise to end Biden’s “migrant invasion” by carrying out the largest deportation in history. 
  • Re-establish US energy independence, and dominance, by terminating the “Socialist Green New deal” and grant licences to oil and gas companies to “drill, baby drill.” 
  • Build up the military to defend the US against hostile nations, but only when America’s interests are threatened.
  • Foreign policy is a low order priority in the platform, and there are four elements that touch upon the Middle East:
  •  Stand with Israel and rebuild the US’ regional alliance network to ensure future peace, stability and prosperity. 
  • Deport pro-Hamas radicals. 
  • Make US college campuses safe and student bodies patriotic, once more 

  • Bring back the Travel Ban – a series of executive actions taken by Trump during his last term that restricted entry into the US of certain foreign nationals; no further details are provided.

     

Trump’s Potential Running Mate 

According to Forbes, Trump has held off deciding on his running mate due to the fallout of Biden’s debate performance; but it is widely expected that the major announcement will be made just before next week’s Republican Convention in Milwaukee. 

Multiple US media outlets are reporting that the top four names in contention are Senator J.D. Vance (Ohio), Senator Marco Rubio (Florida), Senator Tim Scott (South Carolina), and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum. Florida Representative Byron Donalds, New York Representative Elise Stefanik and former Trump cabinet member Ben Carson are also reported to be on the longer short list.

There is no clear or obvious choice. However, the 12th Amendment disallows a state’s electors to choose both a president and a vice-president from the same state. While in previous scenarios, this has resulted in candidates changing their place of residency – often at the last minute – this may prove more difficult for VP prospect Rubio, as the holder of an elected office in Florida.

 

Other Key Developments 

Project 2025: Playbook or PR Ploy – The Democrats are drawing attention to Project 2025, a 900-page blueprint from conservative think tank The Heritage Foundation, to show the country what Trump 2.0 would look like, should he succeed in November. The document, which was a top Google search this week, is billed as a proposal to “dramatically overhaul” the government under a Republican White House. It presents ideas such as firing thousands of civil servants and replacing them with Trump loyalists, asserting presidential power over the justice department, scrapping the education department, and stopping grid expansion for solar and wind energy, among many others. 

Trump has sought to distance himself from the blueprint. He is only too aware that it is damaging to his campaign, after several conservatives indicated the dangers (and legal complexities) of implementing it. However, the fact that it was drafted by many former staffers or allies of the Republican candidate has raised eyebrows about the veracity of his claims to “know nothing” about it or the people behind it. The Guardian states that 31 of the 38 people involved were previously nominated to roles in Trump’s administration or transition team. 

Joe Biden: Discord Among Supporters – Democrats have still not come to a consensus on their party’s candidate. The House and Senate democrats held separate meetings in recent days to discuss the state and future of Biden’s campaign. The Party leadership is still supporting the president publicly – but there are press reports that behind-the-scenes, some are losing confidence in their nominee. Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer and Minority leader Hakeem Jeffries are reportedly seeking meetings with the President to air the concerns of party members. Actor and prominent Biden ally George Clooney, who has fundraised $28 million for the campaign, called on the President to quit the race in the New York Times on 10 July. 

 

What the Polls Are Saying

According to the most recent Emerson College Polling, (9 July) Trump is ahead of Biden at 46% to 43%, with 11% of voters undecided. When asked which way they are leaning, there is an even split between Trump and Biden. The survey findings indicate that Trump’s position has remained steady while Biden has dropped by 2 percentage points, with the most notable shift occurring among independent voters.

Analysts describe the movement in the polls as “still within the margin of error”, with few polling results indicating a radically impacted race following the 27 June debate. In fact, a Washington Post poll on 12 July found that the race overall remains static, with the candidates polling neck and neck among all voters. But there are still calls within the Democratic Party for Biden to be replaced on the ticket. According to firm Bendixen & Amandi, Vice President Kamala Harris – were she to run against Donald Trump – would receive 42% of the vote, just ahead of Trump at 41%. Hillary Clinton polled at 43% to Trump’s 41% (despite no formal acknowledgement of being a serious contender) with other potential Democrat alternatives Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer trailing the Republican candidate’s scores. 

 

What to Look Out For

  •  The Republican National Convention on 15–18 July 2024. Some 50,000 officials, donors, activists and media representatives will converge in Milwaukee to see Donald Trump formally nominated as the Republican GOP candidate.
  •  The Democratic credential committee will hold a virtual meeting on 21 July to establish the rules of the nominating process. Bloomberg previously reported that the party could decide to formally nominate Biden early, flagging this date as a possibility.