Donald Trump was crowned the Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential elections, as well as the GOP’s undisputed leader – and unifier at the Party’s convention on Thursday. The Reps were out in force for Trump’s speech at the RNC, keen to show harmony and strength following an assassination attempt on their leader last weekend. The atmosphere in the Republican camp starkly contrasts with the Democrat camp, where calls for Biden to step down have amplified.
Trump Crowned at Convention
On Thursday evening Donald Trump spelled out his vision for the United States – from the economy, to energy, to immigration, to the US’s place in the world – in the longest televised acceptance speech in US election history. Most striking was his recounting of his attempted assassination, telling his audience “I am not supposed to be here” to chants of “yes you are.” Trump said he felt he “had God on my side” during the attempt.
Many of Trump’s messages reiterated the themes of the Convention. He began in an unusually subdued tone, focusing on unity in the wake of political dissent, aggression and violence, extending a hand of friendship to “all Americans”, and stressing that he is “the one saving democracy for the people of our country.” But the focus on harmony and the return of the US to strength and global stability soon veered into traditional Trump criticisms of the Democratic party.
Going off teleprompter, he railed against the current administration, accusing it of incompetence and leading the country into decline. He talked of a world “teetering over World War III”, with conflicts raging in Europe and the Middle East. He pointed the finger at the Biden White House for inheriting from him a “world of peace” and turning it into a “world of war.”
Trump promised – as stated in the GOP platform released in the lead up to the Convention – to lower energy prices, repeating “drill baby drill”. He pledged to end illegal immigration, close the border and build the famed wall. He spoke of economic growth under his future leadership and recounted how, under his previous leadership, he had “defeated ISIS” and prevented Russia from taking “anything from Ukraine”. And he claimed to have the ability to stop wars with a telephone call.
This, he said, was the most important US election in history. Many would agree – but not for the same reasons.
Assassination Attempt and an Iranian Plot
On Saturday 13 July, an attempt was made on the life of the Republican nominee Donald Trump as he addressed a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. The shooter, a 20-year-old male since identified as Thomas Matthew Crooks, was killed by secret service officers. Separately, reports indicate that Trump’s campaign team was warned about an “evolving threat” from Iran in the weeks leading up to the Pennsylvania rally. Intelligence suggested that an assassination was being planned, resulting in heightened security around the former president. However, no link has been made to the shooting. Iran’s mission to the United Nations dismissed the allegations as “unsubstantiated and malicious.”
What this means for the race
The striking photos that were published in the wake of the attack have catapulted the Republican into the spotlight – or, more notably, shifted it away from Biden. Trump seized the moment to call for national unity, presenting himself as fighting for America in the face of political division and violence. The images of Trump with his fist raised in the immediate aftermath of the shooting also contrast starkly with Biden’s interview with NBC News anchor Lester Holt held just afterwards on Monday 14 July, where the president sought to defend his ability to continue in the race.
Biden Under Pressure
Calls from within the Democratic party for Biden to step down have amplified, with this week seeing reports from ABC News that both Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and minority leader Representative Hakeem Jeffries, the two most senior Democrats in Congress, have told Biden privately that they and their caucuses have serious concerns about the likelihood of a Biden victory in November, and the negative impact on House and Senate candidates should he continue in the race.
The New York Times reported on 17 July that Biden has “become more receptive in the last several days to hearing arguments about why he should drop his re-election bid” but its sources suggest that open-mindedness does not mean a change in course is imminent.
However, Representative Adam B Schiff (California) – close to Democrat heavyweight Nancy Pelosi – added his voice to the chorus on Wednesday, and separately, co-chair of the Biden campaign Jeffrey Katzenberg is also reported to have told the Democratic candidate that donors had halted financial pledges to his campaign.
To add insult to injury, Biden tested positive for Covid-19 on Wednesday, and will now self-isolate at home in Delaware.
Close to two-thirds of Democrats say Biden should withdraw in a poll conducted by AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, and only 3 in 10 Democrats were extremely or very confident in his mental ability to serve effectively as president.
Trump’s VP pick
Trump on Monday announced his choice for Vice President – JD Vance – via his social media platform Truth Social. Vance, the Senator for Ohio, is a former Trump critic turned supporter. A 39-year-old Yale Law School graduate and former Marine who served in Iraq, Vance was previously a venture capitalist. He won his Senate race in 2022 with Trump’s endorsement and has since backed many of Trump’s policies in a dramatic about-face.
As a millennial from a working-class background, Vance is a symbol of a radically different GOP. Trump, who was categorised as an outsider in the 2016 campaign and during his presidency, has centralised his control over the Republican party, and mobilised support around his core agenda. The focus of this campaign is to become champion of the working people – the overlooked and underserved. His VP pick is intended to appeal to the working class; he has been tasked with tackling the key states of the industrial Midwest: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Policy Positions
- Opposes US aid to Ukraine – which he states only serves to prolong the conflict and distracts the US from core issues that threaten its security, such as fortifying the US-Mexico border and containing China in the Indo-Pacific
- In favour of large-scale deportations of immigrants, supporting the construction of a border wall
- Believes the issue of abortion should be left to the states, although he personally takes a pro-life position
- Is a proponent of trade barriers, arguing that tariffs, particularly on China, are required to protect domestic industries from overseas competition
What the Trump-Vance ticket means for MENA
The Trump-Vance ticket means that transactionalism would be the defining feature of US foreign policy. Both believe that the US should focus its foreign policy efforts towards East Asia, and that other regions – Europe, Africa, and MENA – will need to burden share to allow the US to free up resources to meet the threat it perceives from China.
US partners as allies not “clients”
During a keynote address on 28 May at the Quincy Institute's "A Foreign Policy for the Middle Class: Realism & Restraint Amid Global Conflict" conference, Vance argued that the US should build alliances with countries that benefit its own interests, rather than overcommitting to dependent client states. He made explicit that the US “can’t do everything” and that regional states should take on the responsibility and cost of their security and, in turn, be allies and not clients.
Israel and regional security
Vance is an unequivocal supporter of Israel and during his 28 May address made clear his admiration for the “start up nation” and said that it would help the US and the Abraham Accord states achieve missile defence parity through its iron beam system. Vance praised Israel for being an independent ally and went to great lengths to explain that the US should partner with Israel and what he termed “the Sunni nations” to be a counterweight to Iran.
Vance believes that Israel must and will defeat Hamas and that doing so will benefit all US partners in the region. Arguing against the notion that an ideology cannot be defeated, he described Hamas as a “functioning military apparatus” akin to ISIS and Al-Qaida that can be defeated as such. Moreover, he stated that unless Hamas is defeated, the full potential of Israel and the Abraham Accord states will go unrealized and the prospects for a peaceful region will continue to falter.
Iran
A Trump presidency is likely to result in the return of “maximum pressure” on Iran. In an interview with Fox News on 16 July Vance said, “If you're going to punch the Iranians, you punch them hard.”
Republican Convention Takeaways
The four-day Convention has honed-in on themes key to the Republican platform: the economy, unity, law and order and American strength. Of most note was the effort to make these messages appeal to a wider audience. Focus on the high cost of living and rising prices was directed towards working people, and the appearance of Sean O’Brien, leader of major labour union the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, was a clear indication of Trump’s attempts to fashion himself as a champion of the working classes in a marked shift away from previous GOP anti-labour positions.
Previous rivals in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, former UN ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, urged their supporters to back Trump come November in speeches on day 2. But the emphasis was more on preventing a Democrat win by unifying as a party than advocating for Trump specifically – Haley encouraged her supporters to vote for Trump for the sake of the country, even if they didn’t “agree with Trump 100% of the time.”
Opposition to Biden’s immigration policies featured heavily, with speakers denouncing Biden’s southern border policies, calling the flow of migrants “an invasion” and referencing violent case studies as evidence of the threat that they perceive migration poses to the US.
And of course, Vance delivered his maiden speech as VP pick on night 3, using his biography to appeal to the Republican base and reinforcing Trump’s emphasis on representing “forgotten communities.”
What the Polls Are Saying
Most polls are yet to factor in the impact of the assassination attempt against Donald Trump on Saturday 13 June, with the majority released this week representing an average of voter sentiment taken in the week preceding the attack.
One poll, however, conducted by Reuters/Ipsos following Saturday’s attempt on Trump’s life, shows that voters are increasingly concerned about the deeply polarised state of US politics. Approximately 80% of voters – closely split between Republicans and Democrats - agreed "the country is spiraling out of control."
A Morning Consult poll of 2,045 registered voters conducted on Monday showed that Trump is ahead of Biden by just one percentage point with 46%, compared to the president's 45%.
On 18 July, The Economist put Trump at 46% and Biden at 44%.
RealClearPolitics’ latest data drawing on polling averages on sentiment in swing states shows that Biden is behind Trump in all six – despite having won them in 2020. Trump leads by a significant margin in Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania, up 5.7, 5 and 4.5 percentage points respectively. He is ahead by 3.9 points in Georgia, 3 in Wisconsin and 1.3 in Michigan.
What To Look Out For
- The DNC Convention Rules Committee is due to convene on the nomination timeline on 19 July. Democrats plan to meet again next week to formally adopt a date for the roll-call nomination vote.
- The Democratic National Convention will be held in Chicago on 19 –22 August.
- The second presidential debate is scheduled to be hosted by ABC News, moderated by David Muir and Linsey Davis, on 10 September.