On Sunday 21 July President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race – and endorsed Vice President (VP) Kamala Harris as his successor. In an Oval Office address on Wednesday, Biden told America that he made the decision to save democracy and pass “the torch to a new generation.”
In fewer than 36 hours of Biden’s surprise announcement, hundreds of state delegates, most Democratic lawmakers, and many influential interest groups had pledged support behind VP Harris. The entry of Harris – a 59-year-old former attorney-general – will once again shake up the presidential race. In the first hours and days after her nomination both the Dems and Reps campaigns sought to re-frame the narrative of the race in favour of their nominee.
Dems Rally Around Biden’s Successor
Kamala Harris sealed her status as the Democratic presumptive nominee on Monday after crossing the magic number of 1,976 pledged delegates. Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, former House speaker Nancy Pelosi were quick to endorse Harris after Biden stepped aside – as were the other major contenders for the top spot on the democratic ticket, governors Gavin Newsom (California), JB Pritzker (Illinois) and Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan).
The VP’s operations raised a record breaking $81 million in the first 24 hours, adding to Biden’s campaign funds of $96 million and giving her war chest a total of $177 million. A group of over 44,000 Black women gathered on a virtual Teams call Sunday evening to showcase their support for Harris’s bid to become the first woman of colour to be president and raised $1.5 million in less than three hours.
The rapid embrace of Harris marks a sizeable shift from a party that had until last week questioned her ability to not only run as a presidential candidate but also serve as VP. Democrats have consolidated their support around her in a bid to head off a protracted nomination process. In the meantime, the common narrative associated with Kamala Harris has been rewritten.
Harris Vs Biden – Key Platform Differences
Kamala Harris’ main political platform of building up the middle class – with the objective of it to become a defining goal of her presidency – is standard Democratic party policy. Her overall platform is unlikely to deviate from Biden’s key policies as she was part of his administration, but there will be some areas of difference and these are likely to be on reproductive rights, energy, and her “leaning” towards humanitarianism when it comes to Gaza.
The women vote and reproductive rights
Harris is expected to energise the democratic ticket in part due to her appeal among women voters who appreciate the outspoken positions she has taken on reproductive freedoms and abuse.
Abortion is one of the most divisive issues of the race following the repeal of Roe Vs Wade by the Supreme Court. Harris, who has a long record of fighting abortion bans, will appeal to democrats who are pro-reproductive rights and were put off by Biden’s reluctance to lend his support. She is likely to use this issue to bring these voters back to the fold and get the upper hand over Trump. She secured the endorsement and praise of prominent abortion rights groups within hours of Biden’s withdrawal.
Harris is also expected to use her record as a prosecutor to win the votes of women. At a recent campaign event she alluded to sexual misconduct allegations against her opposition when she said she had taken on “predators who abused women ... So, hear me when I say I know Donald Trump’s type.”
Clean energy and environment
Biden has made major investments in clean energy and will leave office as the most environmentally minded president to date. But the VP also comes with strong environmental credentials of her own. She has prosecuted big oil companies like BP and ConocoPhillips during her time as California’s attorney general, supported the Green New Deal as a senator, and cast the tie-breaking vote to pass the climate bill during her vice-presidency. She is expected to maintain Biden’s trajectory on clean energies but takes a tougher stance on issues like fracking, which she sought to ban before joining Biden as a running mate in 2020. Her position on fracking might cost her votes in Pennsylvania, the country’s second-largest natural gas producing state and a key swing state that she needs to get to win the presidency.
Positions on MENA
Kamala Harris does not have a significant track record of engagement with the Middle East and North Africa. Given that her remit as VP has focused on domestic matters, she has taken few policy positions on MENA, though she has expressed her views on the following:
Israel-Palestine
Harris is a firm supporter of Israel’s right to exist and defend itself, and like Biden believes that Hamas must be defeated. She has shown earlier and clearer concern than Biden for the safety of Palestinian civilians, showing that she is more attuned to the sentiment among democrat voters.
Harris needs to win Michigan, where a strong Arab American community led the “uncommitted” vote against Biden due to his position on the war. During Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Washington this week, Harris met with the PM separately from President Biden. In a tone that was reportedly tougher than the US President’s she said in a televised statement after meeting Netanyahu “It is time for the war to end” and “We cannot allow ourselves to be numb to the suffering and I will not be silent. Harris was also absent for Netanyahu’s speech to Congress the previous day. She put her absence down to a schedule conflict, but it could be construed as a nod to the community that lobbied her not to attend; Republicans said it was a sign of disloyalty to an ally.
Some left-leaning democratic lawmakers are withholding support from Harris until she takes a bolder stance against Israel; however, Harris does not see a contradiction between support for Palestinian civilians and the protection of the state of Israel. She will be mindful of the need to remain a faithful VP to Biden and of the risk of antagonising pro-Israel voters; thus, her support for Palestinians is likely to be confined to rhetoric on humanitarian aid.
Defence sales
During her time as senator, Harris voted to limit arms sales to Saudi Arabia and co-sponsored bills in 2018 and 2019 to terminate US military support to the Saudi-led coalition’s campaign in Yemen. In 2020, in tune with Biden’s position towards Saudi Arabia at the time, she called for an evaluation of the partnership, though noted the mutual interests shared by the two countries.
Iran, Syria
Harris has made passing references to Iran and Syria in several speeches, though her comments were in line with the administration's view that the JCPOA, at the time, was the best framework for managing Iran’s nuclear programme and the Syrian president as a war criminal. At the same time, Harris commended Syrian Kurds in the Northeast for working with the US to defeat ISIS. Consequently, she criticised Trump when he withdrew US troops in 2019 temporarily from northeast Syria, which triggered Turkey’s movement into Kurdish areas.
What the Polls Are Saying
It is early to determine Kamala Harris’s current standing among voters vis-a-vis Trump. Most of the latest polls were carried out before Biden withdrew from the race and, in the case of some, before the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump (14 July).
Trump leads
CBS News/YouGov, NBC news, and Fox News polls conducted before Biden stepped down showed Harris’s odds were only slightly higher than, or equal to, the President’s. All forecasted a Trump victory, with the Republican nominee boasting 3, 2, and 1 percentage points respectively over Harris. The latest New York Times poll from 22–24 July put Trump 1 point ahead of Harris among likely voters.
Harris leads
Only one poll puts Harris ahead of Trump: a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted on 22–23 July gave the Democratic contender a two-point advantage over Trump.
Kamala’s VP Pick
Harris will no doubt seek a running mate with cross-over appeal who can boost her standing in the polls. She is likely to pick a candidate from one of the swing states that she needs to win. The frontrunners are:
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro: Favourite of some Wall Street donors who believe Shapiro’s youth (51) and energy could help win the key swing state of Pennsylvania. He has a strong electoral record in his state, outrunning Joe Biden in 2020 to score the best performance by a Democrat. Some liberals find him too moderate, and some donors worry about his limited government experience.
Arizona Senator Mark Kelly: A former NASA astronaut, Kelly is also a popular figure in a swing state. Arizona is a key state regarding immigration, which is the Republican’s main argument against Harris, whom they hold responsible for what they call an “invasion” of illegal immigrants. Kelly’s strong stance on the issue would help counter the attacks. He is also outspoken about gun safety, which could appeal to young democratic voters, but lacks executive experience.
North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper: Serving his second term as governor, Cooper is an experienced candidate with a good electoral record, though his state is not the most critical for Harris.
California Governor Gavin Newsom: Newsom’s name was floated as a potential pick, but this is unlikely because of the 12th Amendment preventing state electors to vote for both a President and a VP from their own state.
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer: Floated as a potential candidate for the job but denied her interest several times in the days following Biden’s withdrawal.
Harris Vs Trump – What’s Next for the Campaign
Trump camp re-groups
Donald Trump was comfortable with Joe Biden as his presidential rival. The entry of Harris – a 59-year-old former attorney-general – into the competition means that his campaign has had to recalibrate its approach. In the first few days of her campaign, Harris turned around Trump’s line that Biden is the oldest ever candidate to run for the presidency – drawing attention to the fact that this accolade now rests upon the former president. She also sought to frame the presidential race as “prosecutor versus felon.”
The early signs suggest that Trump’s team is preparing a broadside against the Harris campaign. It will almost certainly focus on Harris’ role as the misnamed “border czar” and present her as being made responsible for border control by Biden. In 2023 unauthorised crossings at the US-Mexico border reached an all-time high, according to US Customs and Border Protection. Team Trump also intends to challenge the legality of Harris’s takeover of Biden’s campaign funds. On Tuesday it filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission.
Identity politics not policy positions
So far, team Trump’s response has been to portray Harris as an “ultra-liberal.” Meanwhile, Republican VP nominee Senator JD Vance has focused on her eligibility to run for president, in comments reminiscent of Trump’s birther conspiracies about former President Barack Obama.
Donald Trump will have to tread carefully when attacking Harris because of her gender and race, as it may undermine his bid to diversify his core and broaden the appeal of the GOP, as noted in last week’s US Elections report.
What To Look For
- Donald Trump will meet with Benjamin Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago on Friday 25 July.
- Kamala Harris may be confirmed as the Democratic nominee in an online roll call vote before the Party’s Convention. The virtual vote is scheduled to take place between 1 August and 7 August.