Eighty-eight days out from the November election, both candidates are zeroing in on two fronts – the Rust Belt and the Sun Belt – with the Harris/Walz ticket and Vance converging on the Midwest this week. And with the two campaigns now fully staffed with VP picks, the next 13 weeks are set to be dynamic – and dramatic.
On Tuesday, America was introduced to “Coach Walz” – Kamala Harris’ running mate – who has already made headlines for calling the Republican headliners “weird”. There are hopes of a VP debate in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has agreed to debate Kamala Harris on 10 September on ABC.
Walz for the Win
Kamala Harris formally announced Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, 60, as her running mate on Tuesday, and the two stepped out for the first time at a campaign rally in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania later that day. This week saw them in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada in a tour of must-win states – where Walz is expected to be pivotal in the Democrats’ efforts to woo swing voters.
The Democratic campaign is reported to have raised $20 million since Walz was announced. While he is not a well-known name across the US, the response to his nomination has been positive. Among those who know him, he is lauded for his down-to-earth nature, wide experience in government and “dad vibes”. Unlike other Democrats who have spent their careers gearing up for a spot in the White House, Walz is a small-town guy who has struck the big-time.
A VP to Woo Middle America
Walz has been chosen for his ability to appeal to rural America and win over the part of the electorate that Trump has been targeting in his campaign – especially the white, middle class male voter in key battleground states. Harris is reported to have selected him due to the strong chemistry they shared, his demeanour, and his biography – which is markedly different to hers.
A pro-union Mid-Westerner originally from Nebraska, Walz served in the Army National Guard and was a teacher before moving into politics. Elected to Congress in 2006, he has won six terms in the US House as representative of a conservative-leaning part of Minnesota. On policy issues, Walz has focused on expanding child tax credits, paid-leave policies, and codifying Roe v Wade protection. As a two-term governor, his policies include protections to allow workers to unionise and universal background checks and red flag laws for gun ownership, among others.
Walz supports the US-Israel relationship but has endorsed calls for a permanent “working” ceasefire in Gaza and a lasting two-state solution. His selection is expected to bring over hundreds of thousands of Democrats who voted “uncommitted” in the primaries in response to Biden’s approach to the Israel-Hamas war. He was in favour of US troop withdrawal from Iraq in 2007 and the Iran nuclear deal in 2015.
Walz currently serves as the Chair of the Democratic Governors Association and co-chair of the bipartisan Council of Governors – which advises the President and Cabinet on national security and defence issues; he was first appointed to the latter by then-President Trump.
V for Vance, W for Walz
Both campaigns have selected mid-western, white, male VPs, from small-town America. But the similarities end there. Vance is staunchly conservative whereas Walz is liberal; both are described as populist, but the former protectionist and the latter progressive.
Where Vance left for Yale and Silicon Valley, Walz stayed in middle America as an educator at his local high school. They differ on what “family values” means: Vance has previously expressed strong anti-abortion views whereas Walz is pro-reproductive rights.
Vance is supportive of strong anti-immigration policies where Walz opposes measures such as “the wall”, instead advocating for immigration reforms that allow certain undocumented immigrants a pathway to citizenship.
Walz is a strong supporter of measures to combat climate change. As Governor of Minnesota, he introduced plans to increase electric vehicle numbers, fund solar panels on schools and generate 100% of the state’s electricity from renewable sources by 2040. Vance has actively courted and supported the fossil fuel industry, backing fracking and calling into question the role of hydrocarbons in causing global warming.
E for Economy
Concerns are growing about the health of the US economy, notably after the publication of the July jobs report on 2 August, showing higher than expected unemployment figures, triggered a global sell-off in equities that ran into this week. Four consecutive months of unemployment rises along with fears of an AI bubble following weak earnings reports from major tech firms are causing fears of recession – and blame on the US Federal Reserve for keeping rates high despite signs of a cooling economy.
Trump was quick to attribute blame for the market sell-off to Harris in an attempt to disrupt the Democrats’ newly energised campaign. On Monday before the markets opened, he wrote in a post on Truth Social that “Stock markets are crashing, jobs numbers are terrible, we are heading to World War III, and we have two of the most incompetent ‘leaders’ in history. This is not good.” Later that day the Republican National Committee branded the sell-off, which amounted to a 3% decline on Monday for the S&P 500, as the Great Kamala Crash of 2024.
A tough sell for Dems
Knowing that the economy is an Achilles Heel for the Democrats, Trump is keen to exploit it to the maximum. His comments suggest that the Republican party will intensify its economic messaging, and the state of the economy – particularly the impact of inflation on real wages for average earners – will become a key feature of Trump’s campaign. Indeed, according to the polls the economy and consumer prices always come top of the list of key issues facing the country.
While the Biden administration's economic record is strong, Team Harris will not want to make it a major campaign issue given the complexity of the Democrat message that the economy is healthy, even though the public cannot feel it. Althoughthe job market has recovered strongly since the pandemic and GDP and personal consumption have returned to pre-COVID trends, public confidence in the economy remains low – even Democrats barely report above-average confidence according to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
What the Polls Are Saying
Harris leads
Aggregated polling data from RealClearPolitics show a 0.2-point advantage for Harris on average on 7 August, a sudden twist from Trump’s 2-point lead last week. Harris now leads in 7 of the 11 polls, including in all 5 conducted in August.
A Morning Consult poll from 2–4 August gives Harris a 4-point advantage over Trump, with a 1-point margin of error. SurveyUSA and NPR/PBS/Marist show a 3-point lead for Harris while CBS News and I&I/TIPP report a 1-point lead.
Harris’ popularity is on the rise. Based on 150 polls, the Democratic candidate’s favourability has been steady at 46.7% since 3 August, according to the Hill.
Walz who?
Tim Walz was a largely unknown figure before his VP nomination. In an NPR/PBS/Marist poll on 1–4 August, 71% of respondents had not heard of Tim Walz, 17% had a favourable impression, and 12% an unfavourable one. However, those who do know him are generally positive. According to Morning Consult, Walz has a positive net approval rating of 13 points in his adopted home state of Minnesota – equal to California Governor Gavin Newsom but below the other VP candidates. Governors Roy Cooper and Gretchen Whitmer both have net approval ratings of 20 points while Josh Shapiro boasts 25.
Look Ahead
- Elon Musk will interview Trump on Monday 12 August
- The Democratic Convention kicks off in Chicago on 19 August
- Trump and Harris will debate on 10 September on ABC