The Democrats will convene in Chicago next Monday to formally nominate the first African American woman as their party’s candidate. The week leading up to the Party’s convention has been eventful for both campaigns. The FBI is launching an investigation into alleged Iranian hacking attempts targeting both camps, and Kamala Harris is neck and neck with Trump in the swing states, putting the Republicans on the defensive. Frustrated that the Democrats still have the limelight, on Monday Trump gave an interview to Elon Musk. Musk has offered Trump both his endorsement and a platform through his social media site X. Though Trump partially succeeded in turning the spotlight back on himself – the conversation reportedly attracted 1-million-plus listeners – his appearance with Musk did not make the splash he was hoping for.
Trump-Musk Interview
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump saw in his interview with Elon Musk this week an opportunity to revitalise his campaign and re-focus the media’s attention. Since Kamala Harris became the Democrat’s presidential candidate, re-energising her party’s campaign, both Trump and his campaign seem to have lost some lustre.
Aside from technical glitches, which delayed its start by around 35 minutes, the interview had all the right ingredients: a free-flowing, live, two-hour discussion on X – a social media platform from which Trump had once been barred – conducted by Musk, a figure with a global reputation for both genius and controversy. It should have stolen the limelight away from Harris but failed to do so.
Because the interview in essence had the hallmarks of two men sitting together unscripted and enjoying a convivial chat, most of the media coverage focused on Trump’s troubled past with X and his earlier public spats with Musk, rather than the content. The discussion covered some of Musk’s favourite subjects, climate change, foreign policy, immigration and border security, and federal spending. Trump praised the presidents of China, Russia and North Korea, criticised the EU and “internal enemies”, which he claimed are more dangerous than foreign adversaries.
Though the interview reportedly drew 1.3 million listeners, which is no mean feat, the figures may have been below the expectations of its subject. Trump asked during the discussion whether 60 million people (about twice the population of Texas) had tuned in to listen. As a story, the Trump-Musk interview’s shelf-life has been less than 24 hours, and the media circus has upped and moved on. Musk, on the other hand, may now be more inclined to pledge further financial support for Trump’s campaign because the former president appeared on his social media platform.
How the Field Looks Now
Democrats still have the momentum
Kamala Harris and new VP pick Tim Walz’s tour of battleground states ended last weekend amid excitement and enthusiasm from supporters. Harris’ campaign team saw the tour as an opportunity to further capitalise on media attention on Walz – a man with potential to bridge the urban/rural divide – to make inroads into Trump’s margins in swing states. The duo appeared joyful and energetic on stage and attracted 12,000 people in Philadelphia (Pennsylvania), Eau Claire (Wisconsin), and Las Vegas (Nevada), and 15,000 in Detroit (Michigan). The Democratic team look set to carry the buzz around their campaign into next week to the DNC in Chicago, where Harris will make history as the first Black woman and first Asian American to head a major party ticket.
While Democrats have shown a remarkable ability to come together quickly after Biden’s withdrawal and project an image of unity, team Trump is struggling for momentum. One month after the assassination attempt – and the raised fist – that earned Trump sympathy, the Republicans have failed to capitalise on the event to propel his campaign. The former president’s recent public speeches and interviews have lacked some of their former vigour. He has used his time at the microphone to criticise his opponent rather than to promote his own political platform.
Probe into Iran hack
The FBI is investigating claims from Team Trump that it has been the target of “foreign sources hostile to the United States.” The campaign cited a Friday 9 August Microsoft report that said Iranian hackers “sent a spear phishing email in June to a high-ranking official on a presidential campaign.” Politico later received emails from an anonymous source offering internal communications from a senior Trump campaign official and a preliminary version of Vance’s vetting file – based on publicly available information.
The Harris campaign revealed on Monday 12 August that it had also been the target of an unsuccessful spear phishing attack, saying it “vigilantly monitors and protects against cyberthreats and [is] not aware of any security breaches of [its] systems.” In 2016 the Party was the target of Russian hackers seeking to derail Hillary Clinton’s campaign.
Dem’s Platform Ahead of Convention
The Democratic party’s convention will be held in Chicago on 19–22 August. Normally, the convention includes a roll-call vote to formally select the presidential and vice-presidential nominees, but Harris and Walz were selected by an early online vote.
As such, the main activity at this year’s convention will include speeches and confirming of the party platform. President Joe Biden, former presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton have been confirmed as speakers at the convention. Yusef Salaam, a New York City councillor and one of the “Central Park Five” who were wrongly convicted in a high-profile and controversial criminal case, has reportedly been invited to address the Convention. His participation could draw attention to Trump’s key role in the case and its history of racially charged rhetoric.
It looks unlikely that the National Democratic Committee will honour the Uncommitted National Movement's request for Tanya Haj-Hassan, a paediatric intensive care doctor who works in the US but also does humanitarian work in conflict zones with Doctors Without Borders, to speak about Gaza at the convention. As a result, activists will stage a series of events in the margins to discuss and highlight the plight of the Palestinians.
Despite the change in presidential nominee, the policy platform adopted under Biden is unlikely to change. The domestic agenda is expected to focus on growing the economy from bottom up, cutting taxes for working families, securing energy independence, tackling gun violence and fixing the immigration system. Harris’s foreign policy platform is expected to prioritise leading coalitions that share common values and meet the challenges posed by Russia, the existential threat of climate change and intense strategic competition with China. The party will recommit to building a durable peace in the Middle East.
There are likely to be protestors outside the Convention mostly criticising the Biden administration’s policy toward Israel and Gaza. Although Harris has called for a ceasefire and expressed sympathy with Palestinian civilians, her nomination will do little assuage protestors anger towards the US government’s current policy.
What the Polls Are Saying
Harris leads
The momentum drummed up by the Harris campaign is paying dividends in the polls. Aggregated polling data from RealClearPolitics show a 1.1-point advantage for Harris on average on 14 August, an increase on her 0.2-point lead last week. A Morning Consult poll from 9–11 August gives Harris a 3-point advantage over Trump, with a 1-point margin of error. Only one recent poll, the Rasmussen Reports conducted on 1–7 August, shows Trump ahead of Harris with a 5-point lead.
Harris leads or is tied with Trump in six of the seven battleground states according to the latest Cook Political Report Swing State Project Survey put out on 14 August. Notably, the democratic candidate has reversed voter sentiment on the economy – a key policy issue. Harris now leads Trump by 1 point – a 7-point improvement since her entrance into the race.
Harris has also recaptured the advantage lost by Biden among non-white voters before his exit from the race. In a 1–4 August poll from NPR/PBS News/Marist College, Harris had the support of 77% of Black voters and 58% of Latino voters, though she has not surpassed Biden’s 2020 score of 90% and 60%+ respectively.
Look Ahead
- The Democratic party’s convention will be held in Chicago on 19–22 August.
- The second presidential debate, this time between Trump and Harris, is set to take place on 10 September on ABC.
- Trump is due to be sentenced on his business fraud conviction on 18 September.
- VP nominees Vance and Walz have agreed to a debate on 1 October.