As the dust settles on the DNC, candidates Harris and Trump, VPs in tow, have taken their campaigns to swing states while their parties continue to trade blows - hoping one will land with voters. Harris, who held her first sit-down interview as the Democratic nominee, continues to navigate criticism over her shifting stance on energy, among other key policy issues. She faces the challenge of balancing progressive climate commitments with the need to appeal to swing states. Her opponent is pushing a clear-cut but more radical energy agenda that boosts fossil fuels and reverses Biden’s climate policies – it may prove unpopular with segments of his party and of US industry. Meanwhile, polls remain tight as both candidates vie for crucial states.
Campaign Catch Up
Kamala Unscripted
Harris and Walz took part in a joint interview on Thursday, appearing on CNN in Harris’ first sit-down media event since she became Democratic nominee. The stakes were high given the short campaign period and the fact that Harris had yet to answer any unscripted questions from the US press.
She clarified her position on energy and immigration policy, explaining that while her values have not changed, she will not ban fracking and does not support decriminalising illegally crossing the border into the US. Harris also spoke of fuelling “the opportunity economy” to support and strengthen the middle class through affordable housing, childcare tax credits and investment in small businesses.
The interview gave a preview into some of the topics and answers we can expect to see in the 10 September debate against Trump. Notably, Harris emphasised that this election is giving America the chance of “a new way forward” after a decade of Trump dominating politics – in office and out.
New Faces
Harris’ campaign has hired Egyptian-American lawyer and former Department of Homeland Security official Brenda Abdellal to lead on Arab American outreach. Working alongside Afghan American lawyer Nasrina Bargzie, responsible for the Muslim American electorate, Abdellal will focus on shoring up support in swing states such as her home state of Michigan – where more than 100,000 voters cast “uncommitted” ballots instead of choosing Biden in the state’s primary.
Trump has appointed two ex-Democrats as honorary co-chairs of his transition team: Robert F Kennedy Jr and former Hawaii congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard will join the small group tasked with planning for a second Trump term, including choosing key appointments within government. The two are controversial choices, with some Republicans criticising their appointments. They will join VP pick JD Vance and Trump’s two sons, Eric and Donald Trump Jr, on the team.
Wobbly on the wall
Harris has been on the receiving end of criticism from Republicans this week for flip-flopping on her position towards “the wall”. She committed during the DNC last week to revive a bipartisan deal that would see some $650 million committed to expanding the southern border wall in the toughest crack down on immigration in years. Harris previously called the wall “un-American” and a “complete waste of taxpayer money”. Her more centrist approach towards policy issues – she has also moved away from opposing fracking and supporting access to Medicare for all – seems to be resonating with voters.
Trying Trump
Trump is back in the legal crosshairs this week after US Department of Justice Special Counsel Jack Smith appealed to a federal court to resurrect the case against him for reportedly mishandling classified documents. Trump also faces a revised federal indictment accusing him of trying to overturn the 2020 election result.
Power Up: Energy in the Spotlight
The candidates’ positions on energy are becoming increasingly important in a very tight electoral race. Several key swing states in the Midwest are reliant on the jobs, income and exports from the hydrocarbons industry, but they are also seeing benefits from the Democrats’ Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) - which supports decarbonisation and the production of low carbon technologies. Where Trump is clearly pro-fossil fuels, Harris has been more ambiguous, aware of the importance of the issue in the battle to win votes. Energy policy is proving to be a key campaign topic, and one that will have wide-reaching consequences for the future of the country’s industry.
Donald Drills Down
A Trump administration would result in a radical shift in US energy policy – towards both the hydrocarbons and clean energy sectors. He is focused on boosting oil and gas output with the goal of making the US energy independent and dominant, increasing the competitiveness of US industries and ensuring affordability for American families. This involves empowering oil and gas companies – and repealing provisions that hinder their ability to deliver on his “drill baby drill” agenda.
Highway to hydrocarbons
At an April 2024 event with top oil executives, Trump promised to reverse dozens of Biden’s green technologies and environmental rules and policies and halt the implementation of new ones – in exchange for a $1billion donation from the industry. Trump described the proposal as a “deal”, pointing to the taxation and regulation benefits the sector would receive should he return to the White House in November.
Trump intends to auction off more leases for drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, reverse restrictions on drilling in the Alaskan Arctic, speed up the permitting process and unwind Biden’s freeze on permits for new LNG exports. Furthermore, a Trump administration would be likely to overturn Biden-era restrictions on leasing of federal lands and waters for oil and gas development.
Energy over environment
Climate change falls low on Trump’s list of policy priorities.
He has promised to once again pull the US out from the Paris Agreement – an international pact to combat climate change. Trump is expected to scrap incoming rules from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), including cutting emissions from oil and gas operations and implementing a per ton fee for methane emissions, among others. He is also expected to reintroduce his 2020 framework for environmental approvals – which aimed to expedite oil and gas pipeline and LNG plant infrastructure projects.
Exit EVs, wind
Trump has also pledged to halt offshore wind projects on the first day of his presidency, claiming they are lethal to whales, fish and birds, cause cancer, are unreliable and expensive and damaging to the environment. Many attribute his anti-wind stance to his own run-in with a wind farm near one of his Scottish golf courses – which he said obstructed the view.
A major component of Trump’s anti-green platform is his opposition to electric vehicles (EVs). He intends to scrap regulations that encourage their manufacture and push for an end to tax credits that support sales. He argues that they are ineffective and benefit China and Mexico while being detrimental to US industry.
Political backlash?
Trump is likely to face some pushback from his own party against his efforts to repeal policies that encourage the transition to clean energy. States are benefitting from economic gains brought by new factories and power plants, and companies are seeing financial upsides from cutting emissions. As the cost of clean, low-carbon technologies fall, their appeal rises.
Harris – More of the Same
Climate versus votes
Harris has repeatedly alluded to climate since becoming the Democratic nominee, but she has yet to outline an energy policy. Many analysts are drawing upon her time as California Attorney General to discern what her policy might look like - but she is caught between supporting progressive climate policies and courting crucial blue-collar votes in swing states, where fossil fuels and heavy industry dominate the economy and voters often back Republican policies that maximise and prolong fossil fuel output.
Moving towards the middle
Harris has a track record of being progressive on energy issues: she was actively supportive of the Green New Deal; opposed to drilling on federal lands; in favour of banning fracking; and, as Attorney General of California, prosecuted oil companies for alleged ‘climate crimes.’ However, it is expected that Harris will follow Biden in softening her approach to the oil industry.
Despite needing to keep party progressives on side, she is no longer campaigning on banning fracking on federal lands due to the imperative of appealing to midwestern swing state voters, notably in Pennsylvania, where energy is central to the state’s economy. Similarly, Harris will also need to contend with the Biden administration’s pause on LNG export approvals. Halting them permanently would, again, risk losing Pennsylvania – the nation’s second largest producer of natural gas. The industry provides at least 423,000 jobs and contributes $75 billion towards economic activity.
The Inflation Reduction Act
Harris has made clear that she will fully support Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Passed in August 2022, it comprises a package of tax subsidies and loan guarantees intended to encourage the country to move to a lower carbon economy and compete with early advances made by China towards the same end. It targets renewable electricity development; EV adoption; greener manufacturing; development of greener technologies; and reshoring critical minerals development. It has helped boost production of solar, wind and other forms of renewable energy - the EPA announced on 9 August that it has awarded $27 billion worth of grants for clean energy projects nationwide.
What the Polls Are Saying
Despite the recent Democratic convention, which usually gives the candidate’s campaign a boost, polls are stable. Aggregated polling data from RealClearPolitics on 27 August show the same 1.5-point advantage for Harris as last week and The Economist still puts Harris 3.2 points ahead of Trump on average. The latest Rasmussen poll – which in the past consistently put Trump well ahead of Harris - has reduced his lead by 1 point again this week, shrinking the gap to 3 points.
The race remains extremely tight in key battleground states. The Economist places Harris only 1 point ahead of Trump in Pennsylvania, which it predicts has a 24% chance of being the state that decides the election.
Look Ahead
- Harris and Trump will debate on ABC on 10 September
- Walz and Vance will debate on CBS on 1 October