All eyes are on the 10 September debate, when Trump and Harris will face off for the first time this campaign. Amid scrutiny over mixed messaging and shifting policies, and with early voting starting in battleground states, for both camps the stakes of next week’s debate are high.
Campaign Catch Up
Labor Day optics
Both campaigns were in the news this week for their activities, or lack thereof, on Labor Day – a public holiday of importance to US workers and to politicians hoping to woo voters. Biden and Harris dropped in on Pittsburgh – their first appearance together this campaign – to pay tribute to union workers. Their opponents, Trump and Vance – who are seeking to rebrand the Republicans as the workers’ party – chose not to make an in-person appearance on the day. The move made Trump a target of criticism from the Harris campaign.
Team Trump also announced that it was scaling back campaigning in New Hampshire, Minnesota and Virginia. The move indicates the campaign no longer considers these states winnable. The party will step up its efforts in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Policy manoeuvres
Harris this week announced a new tax policy that distances her from Biden – a shift from her previous approach of embracing many of the President’s tax policies as her own. She called for Americans who earn over $1 million to pay 28% in capital gains tax – much lower than Biden’s preferred rate of 39.6%. Harris said her priority was to strengthen small businesses and to reward investment in America’s innovators. It may help to repudiate Trump’s recent nickname “Comrade Kamala.”
Both campaigns are dealing with accusations of policy flipflops. This week, Trump has come under fire from both the Democratic camp and his own base for changing tack on child tax credits, IVF and marijuana legalisation. Harris continues to face criticism for reversing positions on fracking, healthcare and immigration, among others, and some reports suggest voters don’t know where she sits on key policy issues, even after her CNN interview last week. With early voting starting in some states this month – including key swing state Pennsylvania – the pressure is on for the 10 September debate.
Interview Impressions
Reactions to Harris’ CNN interview last week were generally positive – but not wildly enthusiastic. The Guardian reported that the Democratic candidate had done “enough to clear the bar and do herself no harm” and the New York Times noted that though her unscripted answers were sometimes convoluted, she said “nothing likely to cause her serious political trouble.”
Donald Trump posted “BORING” on his platform Truth Social as a reaction to the interview. The BBC remarked that this should feel like a success to the Harris campaign, since her main goal was to avoid giving Republicans anything to attack her with.
Media outlets noted Harris’ cautiousness on divisive issues. Abortion rights, a key part of Harris’ campaign mission under Biden, were not discussed. On the subject of Israel in Gaza, Harris ruled out an embargo on arms sales to Israel and reaffirmed her belief in its supposed “right to defend itself”. While she said that "far too many innocent Palestinians have been killed,” her comment was largely viewed as awkward as it suggests an acceptable number exists. The Democratic candidate’s mild and uncommitted responses raised questions among left-wing observers about the strength of her values.
Debate Prep
The ABC-hosted presidential debate on 10 September is the next major milestone in the election calendar. This will be not only the first time Harris and Trump have debated – but the first time the two have formally met. The optics are key for both campaigns.
Kamala’s calculations
Harris wants to appear unfazed by the expected personal attacks from Trump while holding him accountable for his policy decisions, including on issues such as the response to the Covid-19 pandemic and the bipartisan border bill he stymied. Her focus will be on showcasing what her presidency would do for everyday Americans – and not rising to the bait of her opponent’s comments on her race and track record. While ambiguity on her policy positions is causing concern among prospective voters, some media sources are reporting that substance matters less than strength in this face-off.
This is Harris’ first debate since 2020, and she is reportedly preparing with a small team. Groundwork includes mock debates against Democratic operative Philippe Reines playing Trump – in costume.
Trump tactics
Her opponent, on the other hand, does not need to undergo traditional debate prep according to his national press secretary Karoline Leavitt, who described Trump as one of the “best debaters in political history.” The Republican candidate told CNN that he is “not spending a lot of time on it.” He is, however, consulting policy advisors such as Tulsi Gabbard – who faced off against Harris on the debate stage in 2020, where she put Harris on the spot about her prosecutorial record – an experience Harris will not want to repeat.
What the Polls Are Saying
Too close to call
Harris’ lead on Trump in national polls is increasing slightly. Aggregated polling data from RealClearPolitics on 6 September show a 1.8-point advantage for Harris (up 0.3 points from last week) while The Economist puts Harris 3.1 points ahead of Trump on average (down 0.1 point). Meanwhile, the latest Rasmussen poll, which put Trump 5 points ahead of Harris in mid-August, reduces his lead to only 1 point.
The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Harris has a 13 percentage point lead over Trump among Hispanic voters overall. This group largely prefers the Democratic candidate’s approach to the economy, as well as healthcare and climate change. These – as well as immigration – were the most important policy issues for Hispanics voters in recent polls.
The race remains extremely tight in key battleground states. The Guardian on 4 September called it “too close to call.” The latest Economist poll on 6 September shows Harris leading by up to 1 point in three swing states and Trump leading by up to 2 points in four. In Pennsylvania, which has a 24% chance of being the state that decides the elections, Trump leads by 0.3 points.
Look Ahead
- North Carolina is mailing out absentee ballot papers on 6 September.
- The Presidential nominees will debate on 10 September.
- Five states begin in-person early voting this month – Pennsylvania (16 Sept), Minnesota (20 Sept), Virginia (20 Sept), Vermont (21 Sept) and Illinois (26 Sept).
- The VP nominees will debate on 1 October