Kamala Harris and Donald Trump lined up for their first presidential debate this week, drawing in over 67 million television viewers and many more online. While the 90-minute session did little to expand on either candidates’ policies, it gave viewers the chance to compare the visions of the two parties’ nominees, side by side. Pundits are widely calling it in favour of Harris, although Trump is claiming moderator bias impacted his performance. The debate served as a turning point in the campaign and with 52 days left until the election, this is where the serious work begins.
Campaign Catch Up
The Harris campaign reported that it had raised $47m in the 24 hours following the debate. Trump faced criticism from his financiers after his performance, and is set to attend a series of fundraisers in the coming days to replenish his campaign coffers.
The Harris/Walz ticket also received a boost after Taylor Swift endorsed the Democrats just after the Tuesday night event, signing off her social media post “Childless Cat Lady” in reference to JD Vance’s now viral quote. Her backing sent over400,000 to the federal voter registration site in 24 hours - although Axios notes it is not known how many of these formally registered. Democrats are hoping her support will raise their standing with swing voters in the 18–29-year-old demographic.
Meanwhile, local and state election officials have warned that problems with the country’s mail delivery service, operated by USPS, threatens to disrupt the upcoming election. Primaries ballots and other electoral mail have been delayed in delivery or returned to sender, missing deadlines for counting despite being postmarked with sufficient time.
The Real Campaign Begins Now
The 10 September debate was a watershed moment in the 2024 presidential campaign. It was a crucial opportunity for Vice President Harris to dispel any concerns about her platform, policies and persona. For Trump, it was his opportunity to hit home the successes of his administration and the failures of the current White House and lay out how his agenda will transform what he called “a failing nation”.
The debate was combative – and decisive. Many Republican pundits, donors and advisers chalked up the win to Harris, citing her polished performance compared to the former President’s erratic and often off-message delivery. Media coverage reported Republican frustration with the “bias”of the ABC moderators, who fact-checked Trump’s statements in real time but did not appear to do so for Harris – but also noted that Harris made far fewer false statements.
Democrats Dominate
Harris needled Trump on issues such as his inherited wealth, criminal indictments and legal troubles, his relationships with “dictators” , and supporters leaving his rallies early. However, critics pointed to a lack of depth and detail in Harris’ policies, noting that she chose not to directly address questions on her policy flip flops. Instead, she used her answers to pivot and highlight Trump’s weaknesses and shortcomings. Her strategy of deflection and digging proved successful, as her opponent repeatedly took the bait and missed the chance to highlight Harris’ own track record – or lack thereof.
Trump’s Missed Opportunity
Trump and his team had been deliberately nonchalant in the lead up to the face-off, and the lack of focus and preparedness showed. While Trump posted on Truth Social that it was his best debate ever, others, including those in the Republican camp, were less positive. Senator Lindsey Graham called it “a missed opportunity”; former Governor of New Jersey Chris Christie said the previous President “was not good [tonight] at all”; and Senator Kevin Cramer lamented the lack of detail in Trump’s answers.
Graham, amongst others, also criticised Trump for focusing on attacking Harris and not on his successes while in office: for example, on the Middle East, he lambasted Harris for her apparent hatred of Israel and failure to attend Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s address to Congress, instead of referencing the major diplomatic achievement of his Presidency - the signing of the Abraham Accords.
Trump spent valuable stage time defending himself on topics ranging from the 6 January 2020 storming of the Capital to his record on foreign and national security policy. He railed about the economy, abortion and immigration but failed to land any policy points, instead going on tangents that showed him as reactive and rambling.
Media – both national and international– grasped on to the conspiracy theories that Trump touted during the 90 minutes, including his claim that Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio, are eating pets.
He did, however, end strong – asking why Harris had not implemented the policies she was advocating while serving in office for the last three and a half years. His supporters lamented that this point was not used more throughout the debate – but Trump’s parting message raised an important question in the minds of voters.
Trump has since said that he will not debate Harris again despite the Democrats proposing a rematch.
Who Won?
A CNN flash poll of debate watchers – and registered voters- conducted by SSRS showed that 63% believed Harris gave a stronger debate performance compared to Trump, with 37%. The same group had been evenly divided on the question before the event. While their opinion of Trump did not move much – favourable and unfavourable opinions of him both decreased, by 2 points and 1 point respectively, opinions of Harris shifted positively. Favourable opinions of the Democratic candidate increased by 6 points and unfavourable opinions decreased by 6 points.
A YouGov poll on 11 September showed that 46% of registered voters found that Harris “laid out a clearer plan for what [she] will do if elected”, while only 32% thought the same of Trump, with 21% undecided. Almost half of registered voters, 48%, believed Trump “told more lies or exaggerations”, while only 33% thought Harris had - 19% were undecided.
Talking Topics
Economic policies
Harris criticised Trump’s proposal of increasing tariffs, arguing that the increase in costs to producers would be passed down to consumers through higher prices.
Trump blamed the Biden administration for “50, 60, 70, and 80%” price increases; Harris blamed the Trump administration for the “worst unemployment since the Great Depression”. Both statements were exaggerations and neither candidate proposed concrete solutions for these issues.
Harris reiterated the fiscal policy proposals in her economic programme, including a $6,000 tax cut for families with children and a $50,000 tax deduction to start-up small businesses, though she did not say how she would fund her initiatives. She attacked Trump’s tax cuts for billionaires and big corporations and claimed that Trump would instead impose a 20% sales tax on everyday goods – which Trump denied.
Foreign policy
Harris attacked Trump on his relationship with controversial leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jung-Un. She reaffirmed her support for Israel - questioned by Trump - and for Ukraine. Trump, on the other hand, refused to say whether he wants Ukraine to win the war against Russia, simply stating that he wants the conflict to stop and that he would bring it to an end if elected.
He blamed the Biden administration’s weakness for the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, and the nature of the retreat from Afghanistan. He praised himself for pressuring European allies to step up their financial contributions to NATO by threatening to withhold military protection.
Social policies
Harris defended the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), while Trump, who repeatedly tried to get rid of it, said that he has “concepts of a plan” to replace it. Harris clearly showed her intentions to reinstate the protections of the overruled Roe v. Wade decision, while Trump refused to confirm whether he would veto a national ban on abortion.
On immigration, Trump failed to explain how he would deport 11 million undocumented immigrants as he has promised, instead blaming Democrats for their presence in the country. Though Harris did not present her own ideas for curbing immigration, she noted her support for a bipartisan border security bill that would have increased protections – and which Trump had stymied. She argued that he would rather “run on a problem instead of fixing a problem”.
Environmental policies
On climate change, Harris highlighted that she, unlike Trump, believes that climate change is “very real”. She claimed that the Biden administration has invested a trillion dollars in “a clean energy economy” while increasing domestic gas production “to historic levels”. Trump made no comments on climate change.
Harris did not explain her policy reversals, including on fracking, despite direct questions from presenters and attacks from Trump. She only reaffirmed her commitment to allowing the drilling method, a salient issue in the swing state of Pennsylvania – the second-largest producer of natural gas in the US and where the debate was taking place.
What the Polls Are Saying
Harris’ lead on Trump in national polls had decreased before the debate. Aggregated polling data from RealClearPolitics on 10 September showed a 1.1-point advantage for Harris (down 0.8 point from the previous week) while The Economist put Harris 2.7 points ahead of Trump on average (down 0.6 point). The gap between the two candidates narrowed by 0.6 point between 6-10 September. This followed Trump’s release of new economic plans, including the creation of a government efficiency commission headed by Elon Musk, on 5 September.
However, Harris regained some ground after the debate. The RealClearPolitics average on 13 September shows a 1.5-point advantage for Harris, up 0.4 point from before the debate, while The Economist puts Harris 3.1 points ahead of Trump on average, up 0.4 point.
Look Ahead
- Five states begin in-person early voting this month – Pennsylvania (16 Sept), Minnesota (20 Sept), Virginia (20 Sept), Vermont (21 Sept) and Illinois (26 Sept).
- The VP nominees will debate on 1 October.
Trump has posted on his Truth Social account “NO THIRD DEBATE”.