With the 2024 election just weeks away, the race for swing voters intensifies. Latinos and young voters are among the groups key to cracking battleground states – and both Harris and Trump are deploying strategies to win their support.
The Latino Line Up
Latinos are a crucial voting bloc in the 2024 election. Some 36.2 million Latinos will have the option to go to the polls in November, which makes them the second-largest group of eligible voters after White Americans. Latinos also comprise a worthy share of voters across several battleground states such as Arizona (22% of the electorate) and Nevada (25%).
Latinos are currently backing Harris over Trump, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted on 26 August to 2 September. The survey found that 57% of registered Latinos intend to vote for the Democrat and 39% the Republican. The economy, health care and gun policy rate high among Harris supporters, while the economy, violent crime and immigration are the leading issues among voters supporting Trump.
Democrats do diaspora
Harris’ approach to the Latino electorate has diverged from previous Democratic tactics. She has moved away from identity politics, no longer considering this voting bloc as monolithic, and is instead focusing on different Latino diaspora. She has doubled down on immigration, acknowledging the need for tough action on the border while taking a more humane approach to those immigrants already in the country.
Republicans do reggaeton
Some aspects of Trump’s approach to attracting the Hispanic vote have been described as “out of touch” and “insulting”. This includes dancing to reggaeton songs and changing the lyrics to “Kamala, que mala eres” after calling for widespread deportations and depicting immigrants as criminals. His latest ad campaign warns Hispanic voters that non-citizens do not have the right to cast ballots, threatening jail time for those who do, in an approach that commentators say is more likely to alienate than, attract, this crucial segment of the electorate.
However, Trump’s stance on the economy and immigration is resonating with some Latino voters. According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll on 21–28 August, 39% of Hispanic voters support Trump’s economic policy – the same percentage as those for Harris’ – and 42% favour his stance on immigration, over 37% for the Democratic nominee. However, Trump falls far behind on climate change (23% to Harris’ 46%) and healthcare (29% to 46%).
The Youth Yield
Young voters – Americans between the ages of 18 and 27 – will have an outsized impact on this presidential election. Nearly 42 million members of Gen Z will be eligible to vote come 5 November, and reports indicate that they are more politically active than previous generations were at the same age.
The diversity of Gen Z – in terms of racial background, gender, and priority issues – will also impact how they cast their ballots. At the top of their list is the economy, housing affordability, healthcare, gun control and abortion, according to a recent Pew Research Center survey. The growing separation between genders has been striking, with young women showing strong preferences for the Democrats and some young men moving away from the party.
Fired up for Harris
To date, Harris is leading in polls on the youth vote. The Harvard Youth Poll from earlier this month showed Harris leading Trump 64% to 32%. It also found a widening gap in enthusiasm, with 74% of young Democrats saying they would “definitely” vote in November, compared with 60% of young Republicans.
Harris has sought to energise the youth population by investing in social media campaigns, doubling her campaign’s youth organising staff, and launching a college campus tour in battleground states. As Harris already polls strongly with young women, she has emphasised appealing to young men, although this group is only one of several she is courting.
Trump targets men
The Trump campaign has chosen to target undecided voters, who make up around 11% of the electorate and comprise mostly men who are predominantly white and under 50. Consequently, he has invested campaign time in appealing to more “traditional” expressions of masculinity. He has attended events and rallies based around highly physical combat sports and appeared on podcasts with controversial Youtubers Adin Ross and Logan Paul.
While this strategy could mobilise a significant proportion of an underrepresented electorate on ballot day, there remains a risk that these traditionally less-engaged voters could remain at home, in keeping with historical tendencies.
Campaign Catch Up
Capitalist Kamala, Tariff Trump
On the campaign trail this week, both candidates stepped up efforts to persuade voters of their visions for the US economy.
In Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Kamala Harris gave a 40-minute policy speech on the economy that sought to reaffirm that she is indeed a capitalist and not “Comrade Kamala” – as her opponent has tried to label her. She sought to brand herself as an economic pragmatist that will empower the middle class, protect workers’ rights, and boost businesses. She proposed measures aimed at supporting the sectors that will “define the next century”, such as bio-manufacturing, aerospace, AI, blockchain, and nuclear energy.
After her speech, Harris’ campaign released an 82-page economic plan detailing her proposals and the fiscal measures planned to finance them, which include increasing the corporate tax rate to 28%.
Trump, on the other hand, reaffirmed his plans to cut taxes, and announced his goal to achieve a “manufacturing renaissance.” Speaking at a campaign rally in Savannah, Georgia, the Republican candidate reiterated his plans to impose tariffs on foreign-made goods and said he would convince foreign companies to move their manufacturing activities to the US by creating special federal zones with "ultra-low taxes and regulations" and appointing a “manufacturing ambassador.”
Zelensky zeroes in
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky faced criticism this week for comments he made about former President Trump and his running mate JD Vance in an interview with The New Yorker magazine. Prior to his US visit for both the UN General Assembly and a White House meeting with Biden and Harris, during which he intended to present his peace plan, Zelensky said, “My feeling is that Trump doesn’t really know how to stop the war even if he might think he knows how.” Zelensky also described Vance as both “dangerous” and “too radical.”
Trump hit back at Zelensky, claiming that the Ukrainian President “wants them [the Democrats] to win this election so badly”, but reiterated that as President, he would bring an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Trump’s remarks to Jewish voters
During comments made to the Israeli-American Council National Summit in Washington last week, Trump said that Jewish-American voters would bear partial responsibility if he failed to win the election. Trump reiterated remarks he made during his debate with Harris that Israel would cease to exist within two years should Harris win the presidency – but said that Jewish-Americans would be to blame for that result given their tendency to vote for Democrats. The remarks were condemned by the Harris campaign and the nonpartisan American Jewish Committee and Anti-Defamation League.
The Trump campaign has targeted the Jewish community as a key electorate. It will play an important role in the upcoming election – in swing state Pennsylvania, for example, there are over 400,000 Jewish people. Biden won that state by just 81,000 votes in 2020.
What the Polls are Saying
Harris is still leading in the polls. Aggregated polling data from RealClearPolitics on 26 September showed a 2-point advantage for Harris (equal to the previous week) while The Economist put Harris 3.5 points ahead of Trump on average (down 0.8 point).
However, polls have been wrong in past elections, and the swing states are still undecided. In Pennsylvania Harris only leads by 0.3 points – well within the margin of error.
Look Ahead
- Kamala Harris will visit the US border with Mexico on 27 September.
- The VP nominees will debate on CBS on 1 October, in New York City.
- Back-to-back interviews with Harris and Trump on “60 Minutes” on 7 October. This is yet to be confirmed.