Republican J.D. Vance may have edged out his opponent Tim Walz in this week’s vice-presidential debate, but the "Midwestern nice" showdown is unlikely to sway the outcome on election day.
Veeps Debate: Nice but not needle-moving
The first – and perhaps only – debate between Vice-President candidates J.D Vance and Tim Walz moderated and broadcast by CBS on Tuesday was characterised as “Midwestern nice”. Coverage described both candidates as gracious, civil and respectful throughout the 90-minute, policy-focused debate. Vance, who came to the debate with a very low popularity rating, gave a highly polished performance. On balance, it was the Republican who was judged to have won the debate, though most commentators agreed that “veep” debates carry very little weight in presidential elections.
Iran strikes Israel
The debate took place only a few hours after the Iranian missile attack on Israel, and the first question fielded to the candidates was whether they would support an Israeli pre-emptive military strike against Iran. Neither candidate gave a direct answer. Walz answered that Israel has the right to defend itself following the 7 October attacks and that getting the hostages back and ending the humanitarian crisis in Gaza were “fundamental”. He then bridged to criticising Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw the US from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) in 2018, which Walz said had allowed Iran to get much too close to acquiring a nuclear weapon. Instead, he commented that “steady leadership matters” at such a dangerous time and Kamala Harris is the only presidential candidate who can provide it.
Vance drew upon Trump’s “peace through strength” election idiom and argued that the former president delivers stability through “effective deterrence”. Turning to the pre-emptive strike, he opined “it is up to Israel what they think they need to do to keep their country safe. And we should support our allies wherever they are when they’re fighting the bad guys.”
Pro-climate, pro-choice?
The candidates jousted over the climate and reproductive rights.
Walz reminded voters that Trump had once called climate change a “hoax” and contrasted it with the Biden administration’s approach to global warming, wherein it had pledged a substantial financial commitment to support the Inflation Reduction Act and made a significant investment in electric vehicle technology. Vance responded by questioning Harris’ commitment to climate change, given her backsliding on fracking, and emphasised the importance of protecting US manufacturing jobs and ensuring that solar panels are made in the US and not in China.
On abortion, Vance reaffirmed Trump’s position of leaving it to the states to decide and conceded that the Republican party must earn people’s trust. Walz, on the other hand, stated that he supports the right of women to choose and that the Democratic party is “pro-women, pro freedom for women to make choices.”
The border and January 6
Two of the biggest disagreements of the night were over immigration and democracy.
Vance berated his opponent with what he called a “historic immigration crisis”, including family separation and record border crossings, which he attributed to Harris’ “wide open southern border.” He also accused Harris of permitting Fentanyl into the country at records levels and said that Trump’s border and deportation policies should be introduced to tackle the problem. Walz countered with a riposte blaming Trump for directing “Republicans in Congress to vote against the toughest immigration bill’, which Harris had worked on.
Walz performed at his best when debating the state of democracy. Walz made clear that democracy is more than winning elections and challenged Vance directly on the events surrounding 6 January 2021, asking, ‘did Trump lose the 2020 elections?’ When Vance avoided answering the question, Walz retorted with “that is a damning non-answer.” He proceeded to look straight at the camera and said, “Where is the firewall with Trump?... That’s what we’re asking you America... you’ve got a really clear choice on this election of who’s going to honour that democracy and who’s going to honour Donald Trump.” It was the defining moment of the debate.
Campaign Catch Up
Stormy weather
Kamala Harris on Monday 30 September cut short a campaign stint on the West Coast to return to Washington for a briefing on the impacts of Hurricane Helene. The tropical cyclone killed over 160 people and caused widespread destruction in the Southeastern states, notably Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia, over five days at the end of September. Scientists agreed that Hurricane Helene was made more severe by climate change.
Donald Trump denied the link between the hurricane and global warming, referring to climate change as “one of the great scams of all time.” The former president also criticised Biden’s and Harris’ response to the disaster. On a visit to Georgia on Monday, Trump falsely claimed that the state’s Republican Senator Brian Kemp was not able to get on the phone with President Biden – despite Kemp’s own declaration that he had indeed spoken to the president the previous day. The Republican nominee also criticised Harris for not flying directly to impacted areas – despite having been campaigning in Pennsylvania himself. Both the President and the Vice-President visited the region on Wednesday and promised federal help.
Nose to nose in Nebraska
The sparsely populated state of Nebraska has an outsized role to play in this year’s election by virtue of its slightly different position within the electoral college system – which sees each state allocated a set number of votes. In most of America, all electoral college votes go to the winner of the popular vote; however, in Nebraska, three of its five votes are determined by the winner of three individual districts. Its second district is up for grabs in this election – and has been previously won by both Trump (in 2016) and Biden (in 2020).
The 2nd Congressional District hosts the strongly pro-Democrat city of Omaha but is surrounded by Republican-leaning rural areas. Nebraska is Democratic VP nominee Tim Walz’s home state, and the Party is hoping his Midwestern roots and charm can turn rural voters – the GOP has similar ideas about JD Vance. According to a CNN survey conducted on 20-25 September, 53% of voters in the 2nd Congressional District currently intend to vote for Harris and Walz, with 42% choosing Trump and Vance.
Election Integrity?
Republicans are involved in over 120 lawsuits across 26 states to challenge the electoral process, in what legal experts are casting as a deliberate strategy to sow uncertainty and distrust in the voting system – and to question its legitimacy – ahead of 5 November. Republicans argue that their approach – dubbed Election Integrity – is designed to restore faith in the electoral system and to ensure that people do not vote illegally.
Cases have been lodged in key swing states, including in Michigan and Pennsylvania. In the case of the former, the GOP is seeking to prevent expanded voter access by restricting the use of mobile voting vans and tightening the rules around mail-in ballots. In the latter state, the Party has sought to limit voters’ ability to fix mistakes on their polling cards alongside enforcing strict mail-in ballot regulations.
In Nevada and some other states, Republicans have tried to clean voter rolls of ineligible and non-citizen names. And in Arizona, a lawsuit brought by a conservative advocacy group is seeking court intervention to correct “failures or irregularities” by local officials – which could theoretically permit judges to throw out election results and order re-votes. While it is unlikely to win, the possibility of a judge nullifying results is causing concern, not least because of the uncertainty that such a scenario would bring – it could see local officials refusing to certify results, creating chaos, delays and confusion to the vote counting process.
What the Polls are Saying
A snap poll conducted by CBS after the vice-presidential debate shows that viewers did not find a clear winner. A total of 42% thought J.D. Vance gave the best performance while 41% thought Tim Walz had the upper hand and 17% were divided. An overwhelming 88% thought the tone of the debate was positive.
The VP candidates performed equally (50%/50%) on the conflict in the Middle East, but Walz was more convincing on abortion (62%) and healthcare (59%) while Vance did better on the economy (51%) and immigration (52%). It is too early to determine whether the debate will affect voting intentions.
Harris is maintaining her lead in the polls. Aggregated polling data from RealClearPolitics on 2 October showed a 2-point advantage for Harris (equal to the previous week), with most of the aggregated polls conducted in the past two weeks giving Harris the advantage. Rassmussen reports gives Trump a 2-point advantage and Quinnipiac predicts a tie.
The swing states are still undecided. In Pennsylvania, Harris leads by 0.3 points.
Look Ahead
- Kamala Harris will be interviewed on 60 Minutes’ Candidate Hour on 7 October – after Trump withdrew from the special.
- Stay tuned for the traditional upset/s in the tail end of the election campaign, known as the “October Surprise”.