The October Surprise in the 2024 election campaign was two major hurricanes. The two candidates and their campaigns devolved into a storm of accusations and counter accusations over relief efforts and aid. All this was accompanied by fear of how the hurricanes and the situation will affect turnout on elections day.
Double Whammy – Milton Follows Helene
Category 4 Hurricane Milton ripped through Florida on Wednesday, only two weeks after tropical cyclone Helene killed over 160 people and caused widespread destruction in America’s Southeast. So far, Milton has caused several deaths, destroyed dozens of homes, and cut power to some 3.3 million homes and businesses.
The hurricanes, which have affected key swing states, have caused upset on the campaign trail, and led to sparring between the candidates over the response.
Donald Trump, who has lived in Florida since leaving the White House, postponed a town hall event scheduled for Thursday in Miami, and sent “prayers” to the affected residents of Florida. Kamala Harris’s VP pick Tim Walz, campaigning in Arizona, called for unity across political parties. Harris released a new ad in which former Trump administration employees describe his response to disasters during his tenure. They claim that Trump would “suggest not giving disaster relief to states that had not voted for him.”
President Joe Biden has spoken out against misinformation regarding the federal response to the hurricanes, saying that Donald Trump “has led the onslaught of lies,” including that victims would only receive $750 in cash and that disaster relief funds had been used to house undocumented immigrants instead. Both Biden and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Administrator Deanne Criswell also warned that these false allegations could discourage people from seeking help.
Middle East Escalation
Campaign fodder
The Trump campaign released a new ad this week that reports say appear to hold Kamala Harris responsible for Iran’s missile attack against Israel on 1 October. The ad blames the weakness of the Democrats for enabling the rise of China, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and references “Harris' anti-Israel statements”, calling them a green light for Hamas to continue its attacks against Israelis. The ad goes on to say, “Iran thinks Harris is so incompetent new intel shows that they're trying to help Harris win the election."
Trump subsequently released a statement via TruthSocial where he condemned the absence of both Biden and Harris as the “world is on fire and spiralling out of control.” He claimed that under his previous presidency, Iran was in check, there was no war in the Middle East, no war in Europe, harmony in Asia, no inflation and no Afghanistan catastrophe. Harris issued her own statement describing Iran as a destabilising and dangerous force.
Aid attacked
Harris has come under fire from Republicans this week for announcing a $157 million aid package for Lebanon following Israeli strikes against the country. The Vice-President was criticised for allocating aid funds to Lebanon in the wake of the devastation caused by Hurricane Helene. Florida Senator Rick Scott wrote: "If we renamed Florida and North Carolina to Lebanon and Ukraine, maybe Kamala Harris would send disaster relief faster. She's made it clear that being Americans puts us last in line."
Trump was also criticised by the Biden administration for his statements that the White House has been unable to finance a response to Helene through FEMA because the money has either already been spent on migrants or sent overseas. FEMA has denied these allegations.
Both candidates attended memorials to mark the one-year anniversary of the Hamas attacks against Israelis on 7 October. Trump addressed a crowd of supportive Jewish leaders at his golf club in Miami and described the attack as “one of the darkest hours in all of human history.” Trump claimed “anti-Jewish hatred has returned even here in America” and is “within the ranks of the Democrat Party in particular.” He went on to say the Republican Party “has not been infected by this horrible disease, and it won’t be as long as I’m in charge,” though his endorsed candidate for North Carolina governor Mark Robinson is caught up in a scandal over alleged antisemitic comments.
Harris spoke at the Naval Observatory and called the massacre pure evil, urging the world to never forget. As she spoke, protesters outside the building chanted slogans against Harris’ and the Biden administration's support of Israel. The war in the Middle East has become a flashpoint for the Democratic Party and exposed a rift between moderates supportive of Israel and progressives who back Palestinians.
Michigan matters
Democrats are increasingly concerned that Arab American and Muslim voters in Michigan – an important and one of the most complex swing states – will stay home, vote Trump or opt for a third-party candidate in response to the Biden-Harris administration’s handling of Gaza. Michigan, home to the largest concentration of Muslim and Arab American voters and the second-largest MENA population in the country, has traditionally voted Democrat (bar 2016), although Biden only won the state by some 155,000 votes in 2020. There are reportedly over 200,000 registered Muslim voters in Michigan – a shift in their stance could be enough to tip the state.
According to a national Arab American Institute poll released in October, of those Arab American voters very likely to vote, Trump leads Harris 46% to 42%. Of those polled, 81% said that Gaza was the top issue determining their voting position.
Campaign Catch Up
Media whirlwind
Kamala Harris embarked on a media blitz this week after facing criticism early in her campaign for not speaking directly to the press, particularly in unscripted formats. She appeared on several prime time shows, including The Late Show with Stephen Colbert and ABC News talk show The View. She also granted an interview to former friend of Trump Howard Stern and took part in viral podcast Call Her Daddy, which boasted the second-biggest following on Spotify in 2023 and courts some 2 million listeners, namely women.
Harris also participated in CBS’ 60 Minutes Candidate’s Hour special on Monday, appearing alongside Tim Walz – after Trump backed out. Interviewer Bill Whittaker asked many probing questions, but Harris stuck to her script and bridged to subjects she wanted to discuss. The interview covered familiar topics, such as the Democratic nominee’s economic proposals, immigration policy positions and reversals on fracking and Medicaid. On foreign policy, Harris reiterated her support for Ukraine and commented that Israel had a right to defend itself, although noted that it mattered how it did so.
Back to Butler
Trump returned to Butler, Pennsylvania on Saturday – the site of an assassination attempt against the former president on 13 July. While security at the event was notably different this time around, the messaging was not.
The event was choreographed to play to Trump’s support base, emphasising divine intervention in sparing his life and enthusing the crowd with lofty rhetoric. Trump was accompanied by Elon Musk – who has become a key campaigner for the Republican candidate – and he espoused many of the party’s lines on the threat the Democrats pose to voting freedoms and freedom of speech.
What the Polls are Saying
Harris’ lead in the polls is either static or slightly receding. Aggregated polling data from RealClearPolitics on 9 October showed a 2-point advantage for Harris (equal to the previous week), with all but two of the aggregated polls conducted in the past two weeks giving Harris the advantage – Rassmussen reports gives Trump a 2-point advantage and Yahoo News predicts a tie.
The Economist on 9 October put Harris 2.9 points ahead of Trump on average (down 1.4 points from the previous week).
The battle is now even closer in the swing states. The Economist predicts a tie in Pennsylvania – the state that will most likely decide the outcome of the election, where Harris previously led by 0.3 points.
Look Ahead
- Fox News has proposed a second presidential debate on either 24 or 27 October.
- Harris has accepted an invitation from CNN to participate in another debate against Trump in Atlanta on 23 October. Trump has rejected the offer, stating on 10 October via TruthSocial: “THERE WILL BE NO REMATCH.”