The 2024 race is a straight toss-up, according to top pollster Nate Silver. Both campaigns are nervous and are targeting small pockets of voters in a bid to grasp any and every available vote.
Harris Homes In
Kamala Harris this week began a major push to win the votes of key demographics amid reports her lead is slipping in the polls.
Back to Black
Harris has regained ground with Black voters since Joe Biden stepped out of the race – nearly eight in ten Black voters say they will back her, according to a New York Times/Siena poll. However, the latest figures are still down from the over 90% of Black votes that Biden won in 2020. The drop, if sustained, could be enough to negatively impact Harris’ chances of winning key swing states.
Reports indicate that Black voters attribute the shift in their position to the Democratic Party’s failure to deliver on its promises, and some 15% of likely Black voters – 20% of Black males – say they now intend to back Trump, a six-point increase from 2020.
As a result, the Democrats have decided to prioritise Black male voters, announcing this week the Opportunity Agenda for Black Men. Proposals include measures to help members of this demographic grow wealth, access lending, and receive support in starting a business. Harris also appeared on podcasts and radio shows popular with young Black voters, notably “The Breakfast Club” with host Charlamagne tha God, and travelled to urban centres such as Erie, Pennsylvania and Detroit, to meet with Black entrepreneurs. Her campaign intends to focus on Black faith voters in battleground states in the coming days.
In enemy territory
Harris also took part in an interview with Fox News this week in an attempt to convince the network’s conservative audience that she will be a better president than her opponent. The event prompted Trump to lash out at Fox via TruthSocial, saying the network has “totally lost its way” and become “so weak and soft on the Democrats.”
The interview was tough and contentious. Both host (Bret Baier) and guest were combative. Baier interrupted Harris multiple times and Harris repeatedly told Baier to “let me finish.” They covered a range of issues from immigration to the economy, Biden’s mental faculty, and the biggest threat to America.
Harris was very disciplined, turning every question into a referendum on Trump and his policies. She described her opponent as “unstable” and “unfit to serve” and made a pointed comment that, “in a democracy, the President of the United States, in the United States of America, should be willing to handle criticism without saying he’d lock people up for doing it.”
The reaction to the interview was along party lines with the Republicans and Fox saying “she flubbed” and the Democrats that she was tough and disciplined. The New York Times said appearing on the network was tantamount to “walking into the lion’s den.”
Trump’s Wildcard
Mystery blue-state tour
Donald Trump has embarked on what media reports are describing as a baffling tour of blue states in the last weeks of the election campaign, visiting Colorado, New York, Illinois and California – all of which are considered virtually impossible for him to win. Trump’s campaign says the plan is to secure national media coverage for their candidate but other Republicans worry that the approach prioritises optics over substance and will not serve Trump well in the end. Other supporters believe that Trump may boost down-ballot support for representatives in contested races – six of which are in California.
California dreaming
California has voted Democrat in every election since 1988, and its 54 electoral votes – the largest of any state – are still expected to go to Harris, who leads Trump by some 22 points in the latest poll by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Government Studies. However, much like the national Black vote, the percentage of Latinos in California backing the Vice President (54%) has declined from Biden’s numbers (75%) in 2020.
For Trump, the logic in campaigning in California – he held a rally at Coachella Valley last week – lies in securing Republican control of the House. The Republican House majority won two years ago came down to California and New York – and Trump wants to retain that control. Not only would it make it easier for him to implement his agenda if he wins the national vote, but it could prevent an attempt to impeach him – which a Democrat-majority House could pursue. He is also eager to chip away at support for the Democrats in the popular vote, which Trump has never won.
Campaign Catch Up
Arabs abstain
The Arab American Political Action Committee (AAPAC) has said it will not endorse either Harris or Trump in the election – the first time it has done so since it was formed in 1998. The Committee attributes its decision to both candidates’ “blind support” for Israel in the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. Other advocacy groups such as Muslim-American Emgage Action have chosen to support Harris, describing Trump as a bigger danger.
Healthy as a horse
Kamala Harris released her medical records on Saturday, with her physician US Army colonel Dr Joshua Simmons describing the Vice President to be in “excellent health” and possessing “the physical and mental resiliency” to serve as President.
The Democrats played this hand as concerns about Trump’s mental acuity have begun to surface. Former ally turned critic Chris Christie is the latest to question the Republican’s cognitive ability. The New York Times has called Trump’s speeches rambling, hard to understand, and “increasingly angry.” Harris has also begun to publicly comment on her opponent’s faculties in a turnaround from just three months ago, when it was Biden’s mental state under the spotlight.
Expat equation
Voters overseas are receiving a higher-than-usual amount of attention in this election as both parties look for votes in an exceedingly tight race. The Democrats have invested almost half a million dollars in the Democrats Abroad advocacy group and former Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi made a surprise visit to the group’s activists in London this week. The UK hosts the most US expats after Canada.
Meanwhile, Trump falsely claimed that the Democrats are intending to cheat by mailing ballots overseas without conducting the proper checks – which the Democrats say show his concern about the impact of expat voters on the election outcome. The GOP has filed legal cases in several battleground states asking the courts to set aside all ballots cast from overseas, including those from military voters, for further checks. With some 6.5 million eligible American voters living, serving and studying overseas, and about 1.6 million of them in battleground states, these votes could have a sizeable impact on the results in states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and North Carolina.
Trump has also pledged his support for ending double-taxation for US citizens living overseas. His promise was well received by the non-partisan, non-profit American Citizens Abroad. The group has called on Harris to make a similar pledge if elected.
What the Polls are Saying
Aggregated polling data from RealClearPolitics on 17 October showed a 1.7-point lead for Harris, a drop of 0.3 points on the week before. Rasmussen Reports puts Trump at just a 1-point advantage, while Marquette, Yahoo News and NBC News are calling it a tie.
The New York Times swing state polling averages show Trump picking up a percentage point in both Wisconsin and Michigan – although Harris still leads in both states at 49% to 48%. Harris leads in Pennsylvania by 1 point, Nevada is now tied, and Trump is holding in Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona.
Pollsters advise that there is a risk the polls are underestimating one of the candidates – in which case, the result could be markedly different. It is also worth noting that the number of polls released by outlets aligned with one or other of the parties can sway the polling results: The New York Times reports that there have been multiple polls from Republican-leaning firms in recent weeks, reminiscent of the 2022 mid-terms where averages were heavily swayed by conservative polls, creating an impression of a “red wave”.
Look Ahead
- Early in-person and mail voting start in Nevada (19 Oct), Texas (21 Oct), Wisconsin (22 Oct) and Michigan (26 Oct).
- Former First Lady Michelle Obama will headline an Atlanta rally hosted by non-partisan civic engagement group When We All Vote on 29 October, alongside celebrities and civic leaders focusing on engaging younger and first-time voters, as well as voters of colour.