The 2024 US presidential race has been one of historic firsts – including record-breaking campaign finances. In a race of such tight margins, the role of grassroots donations and billionaire-backed super PACS add another layer of complexity to an already high-stakes election.
According to the non-profit Open Secrets Org, the 2024 campaign is set to be the most expensive US presidential race in history. A report released earlier this month indicated that at least $15.9 billion would be spent this year, including by third-party candidates, trumping the 2020 record of $15.1 billion.
Grassroots vs greenbacks
The Harris campaign is projected to have raised in the region of $1 billion during July through September – a record in itself – compared to Trump’s $430 million over the same period. A significant proportion of this has come from small contributions: Harris raised $321 million from people donating less than $200 each. Trump, on the other hand, has flipped his own script. Where he mobilised significant funds from grassroots support in 2016, he is now reliant on wealthy backers.
The Washington Post released this week a study of Federal Election Commission data that revealed the top 50 donors in this election campaign have together committed a staggering $2.1 billion to political committees and groups – and the majority lean conservative.
The money pots of super political action committees (Super PACs) supporting the former president’s campaign are being filled by donations from “mega-donor” billionaires. The list of names includes Las Vegas Sands majority shareholder Miriam Adelson, former Marvel Entertainment chairman Isaac Perlmutter and his wife, investor Timothy Mellon, and Elon Musk.
Legal loopholes
Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has launched a legally questionable initiative via his super PAC, America PAC, to pay battleground-state voters to sign a petition calling to protect the First and Second Amendments of the US Constitution.
Musk initially offered $47 per signature – in reference to the 47th presidency up for grabs – on the condition that participants were registered to vote in a swing state. He has since announced a $1million per day giveaway lottery until 5 November as part of the same programme – the first three winners were from Pennsylvania.
According to CNN, the Justice Department’s Public Integrity Section has contacted America PAC, warning that the initiative may violate federal law – which prohibits paying people to register to vote. Reports suggest Musk’s initiative falls into a legal grey area, as the payment is in return for a signature on a petition, not voter registration – but some argue that because only those registered to vote are eligible, it constitutes an illegal action. It seems the federal authorities have the same concerns. Either way, Trump and his supporters are hitting the headlines.
Campaign Catch-up
Make or break votes?
Harris is losing ground among Arab American voters due to the Biden administration’s handling of the Gaza crisis and its failure to restrain Israel following the 7 October attacks.
A nationwide YouGov poll of 500 Arab Americans commissioned by the Arab News Research & Studies Unit gives Donald Trump a 2 percentage point lead over Kamala Harris among this demographic and predicts a massive turnout of 87% in the election. Most respondents selected the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as their top priority, ahead of the economy and the cost of living.
Arab Americans represent only 1% of the American electorate, but the tight margins in several key states (around 0.5% either way) makes their vote important to win, notably in the swing state of Michigan, which has a large Arab American community, but also Georgia and North Virginia.
The Republican nominee, who is perceived as more pro-Israeli than Harris, has recently dedicated time on the campaign trail to swaying the vote of Arab Americans.
In an interview with Saudi-owned channel Al Arabiya, Trump outlined his vision for peace in the Middle East and his plans to expand the Abraham Accords. He also spoke of his happiness that he is soon to have a half-Arab grandchild from daughter Tiffany and her husband Michael Boulos. Tiffany Trump’s father-in-law, Massad Boulos, a Lebanese-American businessman, has been holding meetings across Michigan to sway undecided Muslim and Arab voters towards Trump.
On the other side of the fence, prominent Lebanese Americans, including former members of Congress Donna Shalala and Toby Moffett, former transport secretary Ray LaHood, academics and businesspeople, have signed a letter endorsing Kamala Harris. The letter, a personal initiative of US diplomat Ed Gabriel, president of the American Task Force on Lebanon, mentions the Biden administration’s “unrelenting” support for Lebanon, and the expectation of additional help if Harris wins the election.
In red country
Elsewhere, the Harris camp seems to have taken a leaf out of Trump’s campaign playbook and scheduled stops in Texas, Kentucky and Florida this week – all of which are Republican strongholds. The Dems said the move was intended to shine a light on abortion rights.
Crossing the pond
Donald Trump has filed a formal complaint with the Federal Election Commission accusing the UK’s Labour Party of election interference by sending over 100 party members to campaign for Harris. Republican campaign co-manager Susie Wiles stated that the Harris-Walz campaign is “seeking foreign influence to boost its radical message – because they know they can’t win the American people.”
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer rejected the accusation, stating that any party officials assisting the Harris campaign were doing so on a voluntary basis, and in their own time – and that this has been done during many previous elections. Under US law, foreign nationals can participate in campaigns provided they are not compensated.
Enter John Kelly
Trump’s former Chief of Staff John Kelly told The New York Times this week that the Republican nominee meets the definition of a fascist – saying Trump prefers “the dictator approach to government” and fails to understand the US Constitution or the concept of the rule of law. Kelly went on to quote Trump as saying Adolf Hitler “did some good things”. The Trump campaign has denied the allegations.
Kamala Harris has latched on to Kelly’s interview, calling Trump’s remarks “troubling” and warning that should the former president return to the White House, there would not be people like Kelly around him to act as “guard rails against his propensities and actions.” During aCNN town hall event, she said she believed that Trump was indeed a fascist.
What the Polls are Saying
Less than two weeks before the vote, Harris is losing momentum. Aggregated polling data from RealClearPolitics on 24 October showed a 0.3-point lead for Harris, a 1.4-point drop on the week before. Rasmussen Reports and the Wall Street Journal both give Trump a 3-point advantage over Harris and Forbes gives him a 2-point advantage, while Morning Consult, Ipsos and USA Today give the Democrat a 4-, 3-, and 1-point advantage respectively.
The Economist shows Trump narrowly leading in 5 out of 7 swing states (including Pennsylvania, which will likely determine the outcome of the election) and tied with Harris in Nevada. Harris only leads by a point in Michigan. All projections are well within the margins of error.
Look Ahead
- Trump is expected to tape an interview on Friday 25 October for the Joe Rogan podcast, which boasts the largest audience of any podcast in the US.
- Harris is expected to make the “closing argument” of her campaign on 29 October, at the Ellipse in Washington DC – the site where Trump spoke before the January 6 riot.
- Tucker Carlson is hoping to appear with Trump in Arizona on 31 October, for an “Election Special Grand Finale” of his live tour. This is yet to be confirmed.