With days to go, presidential candidates Trump and Harris make their final pitches amid escalating tensions, prepping for legal challenges, and poll shifts. What happens on 5 November and the days following hinges on key battleground states – and faith in the process.
Two Cities, Two Tales
Republican page-turner
At a rally on Sunday 27 October in Madison Square Garden, New York, Donald Trump continued his attacks on political rivals, describing Kamala Harris and Joe Biden as mere “vessels” for the “enemy within”, referring to the Democratic Party. Trump then turned to immigrants, promising to launch mass deportations once in office.
However, the Republican candidate’s fiery rhetoric was overshadowed by earlier speakers at the rally. Comedian Tony Hinchcliffe made headlines for describing Puerto Rico as a “floating island of garbage,” while Republican politician David Rem called Harris “the devil” and “the antichrist”. Hinchcliffe’s comments, though well received by the audience, triggered a strong backlash from Democrats, Latinos, and even some Republican politicians. The Trump campaign later said in a statement that Hinchcliffe’s “joke” does not reflect the views of the former president.
The Harris campaign quickly circulated footage of the Hinchcliffe incident on social media. During a visit to a Puerto Rican restaurant, Kamala Harris said that Trump “fans the fuel of hate and division.” Joe Biden called the event “embarrassing” and “beneath any president”, though he created controversy himself for seeming to call Trump supporters “garbage”. The White House later issued an amended transcript clarifying that Biden’s comments were aimed solely at Hinchcliffe.
Diary of a Democrat
Kamala Harris delivered her closing argument on Tuesday 29 October at the Ellipse in Washington DC, the site where, on 6 January 2021, Donald Trump urged his supporters to “fight like hell” before they stormed the US Capitol to disrupt the certification of Joe Biden’s victory.
Harris focused on highlighting the stark difference between herself and her opponent, Donald Trump. Focusing on healthcare and reproductive rights, Harris underscored that where she would expand rights and protections, Trump would seek to restrict and undermine them.
Instead of getting into the specifics of policy, she spoke to her background as a child of immigrants and career as a prosecutor to make her case for the job of president. She highlighted her “instinct to protect” and “drive to hold accountable those who use their wealth or power to take advantage of other people.”
Campaign Catch-up
Baton down the hatches
The peaceful transfer of power, a cornerstone of democracy, was disrupted in the last election when supporters of Donald Trump stormed the US Capitol to stop the certification of Joe Biden's win. Since then, Trump has repeatedly made false claims that the 2020 election was stolen and has sought to argue the 2024 electoral process is compromised, frequently stating that the only way he could lose is by being cheated of victory.
In tandem, a growing number of Republicans appear willing to reject democratic principles – and even consider violence: a new national survey by the nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) and the Brookings Institution reveals that nearly one in five Republicans believe Trump should reject the results if he loses in 2024 and take any necessary steps to assume office.
According to a Washington Post-Schar School poll, most swing-state voters are worried former President Donald Trump will not accept a 2024 loss and that his supporters will again react violently. Among over 5,000 registered voters from six key states polled in early October, 57% expressed concern about possible violence if Trump loses, compared to 31% who felt the same concern about Harris’s supporters.
In response, last week North Carolina’s former Republican Governor Jim Martin and Democratic former Governor Mike Easley, as well as Wisconsin’s former Republican Governor Scott McCallum and former Democratic Governor Jim Doyle released videos urging people to reject political violence and trust in the election process. Anticipating violence, local election officials have strengthened security measures since 2020. The federal government has also classified the counting of the electoral college votes at the Capitol on January 6, 2025, a National Special Security Event, akin to presidential inaugurations and major political conventions.
Election day preppers
On Tuesday evening, as polling stations close, Republican activists are expected to initiate a carefully planned strategy to legally dispute any outcomes unfavourable to Donald Trump in races nationwide, from local to federal races. The party intends to deploy 230,000 volunteers across every battleground state to monitor alleged fraud. Jerry Goldfeder, the director of Fordham Law School's Voting Rights and Democracy Project, suggested that he expects them to attempt to disrupt the process if possible.
Kamala Harris has assembled her own team, including former White House counsel Dana Remus, to counter interference efforts in the event of a narrow Trump defeat. Following the vote, the key question will be “whether there are credible allegations that a sufficient number of legal votes have not been counted or illegal votes were counted to affect the outcome of the election”, said Nate Persily, an election law expert at Stanford University.
No ringing endorsement
The Washington Post last week announced that it would break from tradition and not endorse a presidential candidate, a departure from its recent support of Democratic nominees. Following owner Jeff Bezos's decision not to endorse Kamala Harris, the paper has faced mass cancellations of digital subscriptions and some resignations from staff, including Pulitzer Prize winners Molly Roberts and David Hoffman. Critics attributed Bezos’s decision to concern that a victorious Trump would deal out retribution against his business interests. However, Chief Executive and publisher Will Lewis said it was a move to align with the Post’s original mission of being an independent publication.
Similar scenes occurred at the LA Times, where owner Patrick Soon-Shiong blocked the editorial board’s plans to endorse Harris – causing one of the editors to resign. Soon after, Trump’s rapid-response team sent out an email calling the decision the latest blow for Harris, stating "Even her fellow Californians know she’s not up for the job.” Soon-Shiong’s daughter, who is not directly involved in the editorial board, later attributed the move to Harris’s stance on the war in Gaza.
What the Polls are Saying
Trump overtook Harris in the polls this week for the first time since Biden withdrew from the race. Aggregated polling data from RealClearPolitics on 30 October showed a 0.5 point advantage for the Republican, compared to a 0.3-point lead for Harris last week.
Individual polls this week are split, with Atlas Intel and Rasmussen Reports both showing a 2-point advantage for Trump, and Reuters/Ipsos and TIPP both showing a 1-point advantage for Harris.
The race remains undecided in key battleground states. The Economist shows Trump narrowly leading in 4 out of 7 swing states (including Pennsylvania, which will likely determine the outcome of the election). All projections are well within the margins of error.
Look Ahead
Countdown from vote to inauguration
